Abstract: Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda, sustains a montane forest ecosystem of exceptional biodiversity and carbon significance within the Albertine Rift, yet the drivers of its vegetation changes remain poorly characterized at fine spatial scales. This study presents a spatio-temporal assessment of vegetation cover change across NNP from 2013–2022, integrating MODIS NDVI (MOD13A2), CHIRPS rainfall, and MODIS land surface temperature (LST; MOD11A2). Long-term NDVI trends were quantified using Sen's slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall test; climate–vegetation relationships were assessed through Pearson correlation and OLS multiple regression with lagged analysis; and spatial clustering of change was identified via Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis. MODIS-derived trends were independently validated against Landsat 8 OLI imagery (30 m).
Results revealed that 70.9% of NNP exhibited significant greening and 28.1% significant browning, with 98% of pixels showing statistically significant change (p<0.05). Despite moderate interannual rainfall variability (CV=8.20%), NDVI remained exceptionally stable (CV=0.68%) a decoupling ratio of approximately 12:1 underscoring the ecosystem's intrinsic buffering capacity. Climate explained virtually none of this variability: NDVI–rainfall correlation was negligible (r=0.075, p=0.836), and the OLS model was non-significant (R²=0.118, p=0.645; n=10 years). Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified 4,000 ha of 99%-confidence decline coldspots concentrated within 1 km of the northern and southeastern boundaries, and 11,500 ha of recovery hotspots. Edge zones were 1.42 times more likely to contain decline pixels than core areas (chi-squared=36.2, p<0.001).
These findings establish that NNP's montane forest is resilient to normal climate variability and that localised degradation is driven primarily by anthropogenic boundary pressure. The study recommends: (1) improved boundary protection with increased patrol frequency; (2) active restoration targeting 4,000 ha of severe-decline coldspots; and (3) strengthened buffer zone policy with structured community engagement.
Keywords: Nyungwe National Park; NDVI; Spatio-temporal vegetation change; MODIS; CHIRPS; Mann-Kendall trend test; Sen's Slope; Getis-Ord Gi*; Hotspot analysis; Edge effects; Climate–vegetation relationship; Conservation management; Albertine Rift.
Title: Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Vegetation Cover Changes in Nyungwe National Park, Rwanda (2013–2022): Implications for Conservation Management
Author: Mr. Telephosa Bakuriramumwami
International Journal of Life Sciences Research
ISSN 2348-313X (Print), ISSN 2348-3148 (online)
Vol. 14, Issue 2, April 2026 - June 2026
Page No: 12-26
Research Publish Journals
Website: www.researchpublish.com
Published Date: 06-May-2026