Abstract: Risk management in construction industry is one of the important processes of construction management to achieve project objectives and minimize potential risks . Construction projects have been distinguished from other projects in different industries by their uniqueness and complexity. Many types of construction industry in EGYPT were studied such as infrastructure, public buildings, housing projects and power station projects, these kinds of projects have a huge development due the increasing demand for such kind . Risk factors affecting negatively this industry are attributed to many sources as these risks cause cost overrun and/or schedule delay in many construction projects.
The purpose of this research is to achieve and propose an integrated and coherent methodology that may help in determining risk factors related industrial projects , qualitative same quantitative assessment , using advanced questionnaire tools & surveying techniques that help in proposing an approach to improve and develop risk management processes , mitigate threats , maximize response influence , alerting & advising stake holders to insure project success and overcome obstacles with the lowest expected losses .
In this research many steps were conducted starting by literature review , identifying the risk factors and sources using extensive survey through experts representing huge companies in construction fields . Then an a questionnaire was designed & distributed to prioritize these factors regarding their probability and consequences on both time and cost. According to their relative important index , a statistical analysis for all collected data was carried out using (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) SPSS Ver.23 software , Reliability Analysis , ( Cronbach’s alpha coefficient ) , Person correlation ,T test, and ANOVA analysis, to find out the effect of all independent variables on dependent variables .In parallel an extensive survey was conducted to collect data of 32 real existing mega projects during last ten years with a total budget of 330 billion EGP. These data includes real indications , impacts and deviations regarding the main parameters adopted in this research , time & cost , then a forecasting model was developed using Crystal Ball software ver. 11.1.2.4 , the entire range of results possible for a given situation with a specified confidence levels by studying the top 20 risk factors affecting time and cost and their impacts on the case studies of projects with the highest schedule and cost deviations . The results were compared and the main findings were very close to the actual results as the actual time deviation average for the real projects is 33% while the software prediction is 31% & the actual cost deviation average for the real projects is 28.5% while the software prediction is 27% . Finally a survey was distributed to experts to identify the most effective responses for these risks. The result was adding 78 new responses by the respondents beside the original questionnaire 80 responses .
Keywords: Risk assessment , qualitative , quantitative , schedule deviation , cost deviation , probability, impact , relative important index , response planning , simulation , forecasting , statistical analysis.
Title: A Proposed Methodology for Managing Risks in Construction Industry in EGYPT
Author: Ahmed Mohammed Abdelalim, Adel Abo El-yazid El-samadony, Amr Afifi Abdul Hamed
International Journal of Civil and Structural Engineering Research
ISSN 2348-7607 (Online)
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